When it comes to the American ‘winner take all system’, the Electoral college, and Donald Trump: Iowa will be the winner take all State. Iowa has increasingly become a necessary battle ground State for Republican candidates and Donald Trump is no exception. Republicans have fallen victim to the Iowa effect during the past two elections and seen 8 years of Obama because of it.
Iowa may not have the most electoral votes, but historically the Iowa caucuses are the first major nominating events of the Presidential race and will set a candidate up for the preceding months. The past two elections have seen a Democrat tackle Iowa and go on to fill the White House, three elections ago Bush won Iowa and he too won the White House. A strong start is imperative, voters inherently sway towards the candidate they believe is the strongest and Iowa is the first time they see candidates at full force.
Given the Republican party’s poor performance historically, Iowa’s importance should incite fear in Donald Trump’s campaign, Republicans have won Iowa only once since 1988. Republican voters should not count Iowa out just yet, while history would predict a Hillary victory, recent polls show Donald ahead and his ability to command Iowa’s Delaware Country could present problems for Hillary.
Regardless of which side of the aisle you sit on, the importance of the Iowa State caucuses is immense. However, while Clinton could recover from an Iowa loss, Trumps’ winning mentality could see the election lost after a weak Iowa performance.